Stock-market

This book and its concept dwells into the area of the financial markets and how they affect each other. Its theory meshes with various other market theories in that if one market goes up, another may respond differently. This is one of the handful of books i would recommend to anyone beginning to get serious about the financial markets. I first picked this up in a state library, much to my amazement it was brand new and never borrowed, much like a lot of the information in it.

You'll learn a lot from this book. Most investors sit obsessively focused on the market averages. They'll cut on their TV and see the ticker on CNBC be in the green and feel elated or else they'll see it red and get worried. Murphy's book will show you how a study of the bond, currency, and commodities markets along with an analysis of the stock market will help you see the big picture and get a better feel for where the economy and all of the markets are going. The past 3 years has proven to us that just because the stock market has a rally doesn't mean we are on the verge of a big economic boom or a new bull market.

Murphy demonstrates how each of these four sectors interact with one another and the business cycles and if you can grasp the lessons he teaches you then you'll have a clearer understanding of what drives the financial markets. Once you understand these cycles you will be able to forecast the intermediate term trend of the markets. It really isn't that complicated.

The only negative about this book is that it reads like a textbook. It takes a theory of how these markets rotate with one another and demonstrates it with example after example. It takes work to get through the book, but the payoff is well worth it. In fact the lessons in this book are critical to anyone who wants to become a successful investor. In today's environment of rapid boom and bust in which market timing is critical they are more important than ever. Even though it is 10 years old, this is the best book on the subject.

Those who were reluctant to accept the benefits of intermarket analysis after reading Intermarket Technical Analysis (1991) will find making the paradigm shift much easier after reading his latest book published in February 2004 called Intermarket Analysis. Murphy has the benefit of some monumental market events in the last three decades to demonstrate his case and he uses them to great effect.

As John pointed out in an interview for Stocks & Commodities magazine I did with him in December 2003, it was his original goal to write the quintessential intermarket book but then found the topic so involved that each chapter could have become a book. There is just so much to discuss. Attempting to cover anything but a small snippet in a review is sheer folly. It is also impossible to do the book justice.

Markets have become so interdependent in the last decade, a correlation that continues to strengthen with time. If those who suffered financial ruin between 2000 and 2002 had read Intermarket Technical Analysis, how many of them could have avoided huge losses and even profited from what occurred? We will never know for sure but is it a risk they anyone can afford to take, especially when considering that the cost of avoidance (cost of the book) is less than $50? For those serious about making money in the market and keeping it, his new book, Intermarket Analysis is an absolute must!

Matt Blackman - Technical writer/review and regular contributor to Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Mag, Traders Mag (Europe), Working Money, Traders.com Advantage, SFO Magazine

The original book Intermarket Technical Analysis was great for its time, however some of the relationships it described change in a deflationary environment which the author suggests we are in. However, the best reason for the rewrite was the writing in the earlier book was terrible in my opinion. It was a terribly boring book -- even if you are interested in the topic.

This book is different, and is a much better book. It also seems to me that the sector analysis coverage is a little more thorough (although I have not opened them up side by side to tell).

The only downside of this book is I don't think it gives you as many practical tools for tracking the business cycle and sector rotation as Pring's book, how to select stocks using technical analysis. It will give you the basics though, relying heavily on comparative relative strength.

If you want to see the big picture and understand how the markets are tied together, I can without hesitation recommend this book. There are several other books that complement this one as well.

This book will be helpful to those seeking an introduction to the interrelatedness of the currency, commodity, equity and fixed income markets. The book was well written and easy to read. However, I would not suggest the book to a person with no technical, economic or financial background.

Although I respect Mr. Murphy's work, he, like most technical analysts, can tell you with 100% accuracy exactly what happened.........yesterday. He really did do a good job on a very difficult topic, but the historical analogies referenced imply that the interrelatedness is rudimentary and predictable.
After a very detailed history of the four major market relationships, Murphy finally concludes that some of the historical tendencies are currently being challenged and that only time will tell if a new relationship has emerged or if history will again be proven right.

John Murphy's "Intermarket Analysis" is an updating of his excellent 1991 text "Intermarket Technical Analysis". Both books are the most clearly written and thought-provoking texts on this topic that I have encountered.

In the interest of disclosure, let me say that I do not know Mr. Murphy; nor has he or his publisher solicited this review. His editor at Wiley, Pamela Van Giessen, also edited a book I wrote on The Psychology of Trading. Knowing Ms. Van Giessen's integrity in a business that too often lacks that virtue, and having enjoyed Murphy's first book on the topic, I was eager to give "Intermarket Analysis" a thorough read.

Murphy begins with a review of the markets from the 1980s, recapitulating themes from the first book, including the close linkages among the currency, bond, commodities, and stock markets. His discussion of the role of oil and gold in economic slumps and booms is first rate, as he traces the interplay among these markets during the first Persian Gulf War and then during the "stealth bear market" of 1994. Throughout these presentations, Murphy captures qualitative relationships between markets that provide inspiration for traders interested in quantitative modeling. For example, the relationship between oil stocks and crude oil prices and the CRB/Bond Ratio are promising tools in capturing shifts in commodity prices that tend to impact the stock indices. I was particularly intrigued by his presentation of sector relationships during economic/market cycles, including the relative performance of cyclical and consumer stocks.

Where Murphy's book really shines, however, is in its explanation of intermarket relationships in a deflationary environment. He captures these relationships in his account of the recent bear market, drawing upon such diverse intermarket relationships as semiconductor stocks, Japanese markets, the Australian dollar, and the yield curve. This alone is a major advance over his previous text. At the end of the book, he traces the start of the recent bull market, illustrating the transition from a deflationary environment to an inflationary one--a pattern that also occurred after the great bear market of the 1930s.

Weaknesses in this book, from this reviewer's perspective, include an overemphasis on charts and visual data at the expense of quantitative treatments and a glib treatment of the Kondratieff Wave (long-term economic cycles). That having been said, this is an excellent market book. The presentation of sector rotation during economic cycles alone provided enough ideas to keep me busy with modeling efforts. Chart-based technical analysts and quants alike can find value in Murphy's work.

Brett Steenbarger
www.brettsteenbarger.com