Money-market

In fact, we are spared math, and we are not given practical counsel, either. That was what I looking for, as the title suggests. The title should be How Can The Smart Money Be So Dumb.

Instead, this is an interesting run-through of recent horror stories on Wall Street from the Internet bubble to IPO's to pro forma accounting and Enron. Behavioral finance is discussed here, but Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes by Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich is far superior.

Or read Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein. Or John Neff On Investing instead.

Mr. Cunningham is one of the new wave of Buffett explainers. (Where were you people 15 years ago when there was money to be made buying Berkshire?) And why does someone so incisive, so downhome funny as Mr. Buffett need so much explanation?? (Try Cunningham's The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America or the Berkshire Hathaway annual report.)

Unfortunately, the author lets slip his idea of a five-year holding period for stocks. That may turn out to be good advice, but which stocks would he choose to hold? We have no idea. (Tech stocks, big winners 2 years ago, have crashed back down to their 1997 prices. And non-tech Walt Disney is well below its 1997 prices.)

I think Mr. Cunningham is an extremely brave and patient investor.

The writing styles of both the Tedesco brothers, while distinct, are conversational, easy-going and not without humor. It's like getting advice from more experienced friends who are trying to save you some trouble.

Within the 300 pages of this book, Lynch outlines a useful rubric against which all stock selections might be measured. His stocks fall into six categories: Slow Growers, Stalwarts, Cyclicals, Fast Growers, Turnarounds and Asset Plays. Screening, buying and selling advice are outlined for each of these six flavors, although nothing revolutionary (eg., Sell a slow grower when the dividend is unattractive.) He delivers a wealth of the basic analytical tools (well, more like rules of thumb) for stock research, explaining price earnings ratios, the import of tax loss carry-forwards, goodwill accounting, inventories, and other basics of P&L statements and Balance Sheets. It's a pocket guide financial course for those who may have slept through Accounting 101.

Lynch urges stock pickers to do their homework, and suggests the regimen of a "Two Minute" drill, whereby an investor can recite a brief monologue of reasons for selecting a security: Reasons for selection, what the company needs to do to succeed, and pitfalls that stand in the way. Obviously, this is not a book for the technicians or chartists. Nor even speculators, as Lynch reminds the reader that his "ten-baggers" or "forty-baggers" all come as a result of having held at least three to four years.

Quite a bit of the book carries a populist bent. There is plenty of advice to pay more heed to what's happening in the local shopping mall than to investment brokers ("oxymorons"), and to avoid stocks with exotic names or that may have been whispered to be hot. Of course, we've all been aware of this, and we're all wealthy and drinking daiquiris on the beach now, right?

In sum, it is worth the investment of the few hours it takes to swallow this information. At worst, it is an entertaining look at some high-fliers the former Magellan manager scored with, but at the very least it serves as reminder that basics need to be followed, and nothing works as well as solid research, good discipline and old fashioned hard work.

At the heart of Lynch's case is that each individual has enough inherent knowledge and experience to be a successful investor. He uses numerous analogies to show investors:

1. The power of common knowledge (take advantage of what you already know) 2. You don't need to be a Wall Street analyst to uncover great investment opportunities 3. You are not disadvantaged vs. large, institutional investors You don't have to accurately predict the stock market to make money in stocks 4. To keep an open mind to new ideas

From my years on Wall Street, I found many of his theories and ideas to be completely accurate. Many other books I have read focus on the inherent evils of the possessed financial consultant community. Yes, the industry has its problems. However, $8 stock trades are not the only ingredients in profitable investing. In fact, I don't recall him emphasizing the need for discount trades, a fact over-emphasized in almost every other book I have read (remember, I am no longer in the industry...I don't need to strike a case for broker commissions). Instead, he shows you what information to focus on and how to apply it.

Do yourself a favor: Buy this book. Read it twice. It is not outdated...it is timeless. Yea, I know, you already know it all. My advice is to lose the ego and take a refresher course on common sense investing. When you finish, put it on your bookshelf. Do not give it to your kids or neighbors; buy them their own copies. This is a great book!

Dr. Kaufman's influence has evolved through his studies of the credit markets, role in developing them as head of research at Solomon Brothers, commentator on the credit markets and Federal Reserve policy, and forecaster of financial market trends. He is well respected, even by those who do not agree with him. Perhaps his most influential moment came on August 17, 1982 when he called the turn in the interest rate environment that kicked in the bond and stock market boom in the United States that has lasted ever since.

Let me briefly describe each part of the book. The first nine chapters are primarily a biography of Dr. Kaufman. Despite the fact that I have been following his thinking closely for over 20 years, much of this was new to me. He is modest in speaking about his accomplishments, which makes the story more appealing. The story of how Dr. Kaufman became "the" Henry Kaufman is well worth your time. Born in a small rural town in Germany, violence against Jews in his own town caused his family to emigrate to the United States in the 1930s. During the time in Germany, he suffered from polio, and had two operations as a result. Speaking almost no English when he arrived in New York, he was back to grade level performance within a year . . . after the humiliation of being put back into the first grade. You will get many interesting glimpses of how important mentors and families are to the accomplishments of any one.

Chapters three through fifteen also serve as a partial history of the world (and especially the U.S.) financial markets. The length of the period covered and the breadth of view make his perspective very valuable for the casual observer of the subject. Most will be surprised by how great the changes have been in the last two decades, for example.

But, to me, the most valuable parts of this book were the prescriptive elements of what needs to be done now that build from material in chapters eleven through eighteen. I agree with him that regulation is falling behind the shifts in the financial markets. For example, new types of financial institutions are being created that have essentially no regulation, yet contain great risks for the whole society. CitiGroup is an example. The banking part is regulated by the Federal Reserve but the Travelers insurance portions are regulated by the states. The investment banking part of the company is primarily regulated by the SEC.

He also warns against the excessive use of derivatives, financial leverage, and decreased care in overseeing these practices compared to their size and importance. In good economic times, this works well. How well will they work in bad economic times? Probably not very well. The near collapse of the bond market during the Russian debt crisis in 1998 is an important warning here.

More significantly, although the Federal Reserve knows that there is a stock and real estate speculative bubble in the United States, it is at a loss to know how to handle that bubble. Dr. Kaufman predicts tough times and greater volatility in the markets ahead that will make the one-day fall in October 1987 look like a walk in the park. The collapse will be abetted by the low savings rate, the growing importance of other strong currencies, high debt levels, incomplete regulation of speculation, and greater growth abroad while the Fed fights back by only being able to lower interest rates.

These are sobering words and thoughts, and I hope that policy-makers, policy-influencers, as well as ordinary citizens will take them seriously. The time to fix the dike is before it breaks.

If Dr. Kaufman is right, how will you protect the financial security of your organization, business, career, and family? Without knowing what the risks are, you won't know what to prepare for. I suggest you read this book as part of your preparation.

The only people who will be disappointed in this book are those who would like a more detailed and technical explanation of these points. Dr. Kaufman is clearly capable of providing more, but did not want to limit his audience. Despite its general nature, I found the chapter on forecasting to be quite interesting and valuable.

After you have read this book, also ask yourself if you have taken full advantage of your opportunities in life as Dr. Kaufman has. If you have not, ask yourself what you could learn from his example. I suspect that you will start asking for and getting more advice from outstanding people as a result.

Live long and prosper!