Investment-management

Alan Rugman does yeoman service in dispelling the myths of globalization as an omnipotent and omnipresent force in international business. Drawing on a myriad of recent cases, such as Disney and Saatchi and Saatchi, Rugman presents a thorough, compelling and provocative argument that regional markets and intra-firm transactions and relationships within those markets (particularly the triad of Asia, North America and Europe) and not a globalized, cast-the-net-widely juggernaut approach to multinational corporate strategy will continue to rule the day.

Alan Rugman is one of the top business school researchers in the world. In this insightful book he takes a different view of globalisation than most. It is very useful and thougt provoking.

Rugman's "End of Globalization..." is a superb analysis of the international trade of product and services and the nature of foreign investment. He effectively shows how, in reality, international trade and investment needs to be understood in terms of firm and not market activity, and in particular, in terms of the activities of 441 of the Fortune 500 companies. Rugman's work shows how most globalization activity is, in fact, based within a triad of Europe, Japan and the U.S., Foreign Direct Investment is largely intra-firm and industry, and that the key driver is regional and local based economic activity, not a global free-for-all.

Rugman provides examples of how globalization fails (Disney, Saatchi and Saatchi) as well as success stories (ACER) and an analysis of how 20 of the world's multi-national corporations actually operate - i.e., with a strong regional and local presence.

We covers the role of the WTO (demise imminent), protectionism (NAFTA and EU), health and evironmental restrictions, and positions the dot com dream of internet-driven wealth as being one of media hype. There is no single global culture he says, and the new mantra really should be "Think Regional. Act Local. Forget Global".

This book is a brilliant demolition act on the false promises of globalization and also a stinging riposte to the doom-mongering paranoia of the Starbuck's trashers of Seattle and the McLibel crybabies.

Well written, clear, forthright, and with relevant examples this book is a must for students of globalization and international economics everywhere

I've read several Enron books, from Cruver's poor product to Lynn Brewer's silly treatise, and I have to say that this one is probably more accurate and balanced than any of the others, but..... it's a real snorefest. Any author that can take a fascinating story like this and put a reader to sleep with it is not really overachieving in my view.

I guess Fox couldn't get anyone significant to talk to him and maybe that held him back some, but it didn't keep Cruver and Brewer and Swartz from producing more entertaining stuff in their efforts which were similarly unencumbered by input from people who were really making it happen. Oh well, he produced a "fair and balanced" treatment that just might help you with that insomnia thing.

This book, plus "24 Days," together tell you everything you need to know about the fall of Enron. This one covers the "rise" better, that one covers the "fall."

What one ought to take away from both books is the realization that, despite the failure and indeed despite the evident criminality, Enron (as Fox says in his epilogue), "wasn't a complete hoax. The company deserved admiration for its early forays into trading gas and electricity, and for its plunge into the innovative financing of energy projects. It out-maneuvered the old-line energy companies to expand the use of derivatives in the energy industry. This introduced new ways of managing risk, which lowered the costs of energy-related transactions for an array of businesses."

Another reviewer has said that the Fox book is a cure for insomnia. The fact is that if you need to have material on Enron MADE interesting for you by dramatic presentation, by a well-shaped narative flow, then you may have trouble with Fox, simply because he lets the material speak for itself.

Sometimes it speaks in ambiguous tones.

Good, solid background on the history of Enron and its missteps. If you're interested in one stop shopping for an understanding of Enron the corporation from start to finish, this is the best out there so far.

This book is definitely not worth its price. Basic option theory and knowledge on VAR is wrongly interpreted. The book gives no insight on what energy risk management realy stands for. Utterly disappointed !

This book provides an excellent background and review in easy to understand language about energy trading and energy risk management. I highly recommend it for understanding the basics of this complex subject. It also provides a global overview of market developments. It is not, however, a quantative treatise on energy and financial derivatives. This is a primer that should be viewed as such.Fusaro's second, Energy Derivatives: Trading Emerging Markets, is the companion piece to this book and adds the newer commodities of weather, emissions, bandwidth and coal derivatives. I recommend it as well.

Until Peter Fusaro's book "Energy Risk Management" hit the bookstores in 1998, anyone needing a clear explanation of how risk is managed in the energy markets had to sift through numerous trade publications and journals.

This was genergally the reaction of any industry participant I spoke to, independently of whether they were clients, students or collegues of mine both from the Energy community or from academia. Therefore, with this feedback, I would strongly encourage my collegues to read Peter Fusaro's new book "Energy Derivatives: Trading Emerging Markets" which he edited with Jeremy Wilcox and was published in October of this year. In this book Peter Fusaro and his team of energy professionals take the reader deeper into the secondary markets (energy derivatives, etc.) which have emerged as a result of the deregulation process of the Energy Industry and, most importantly, the book explains how to use these markets to manage energy risk. Further, in chapter 3, 4, 5 and 6 the reader is introduced to the concept of interdependency among energy markets and other related markets. These include weather and weather derivatives, emission trading and bandwidth - the most recently emerging market converging with Power to become the backbone of the new global economy. This is the first book to address the complex topic of convergence of power and the rapidly growing bandwidth market. For this reason alone this book becomes a must for everyone who is interested in becoming a part of the evolving energy market.

The management of risk in the context of energy or weather is quite different than in other contexts, due to the peculiarities of the data that occurs in energy prices. The high volatility of energy prices can range, as the authors of this book point out, between 50-100% for gas, to 100-500% for electricity. No doubt this kind of volatility, and other properties such as correlations and mean reversion, entails that some different mathematical strategies for modeling energy derivatives be devised. The authors give a good tour of some of these strategies, and anyone interested in energy derivatives will gain a lot of insight into their modeling when reading this book. Due to space constraints, only chapters 5 and 7, which this reviewer considered the most important of the book, will be reviewed here.

In chapter 5 the author presents techniques for energy modeling that go beyond the used of the convenience yield by using forward pricing techniques. The goal is to describe the dynamics of future contract prices that takes into account the correlations with other futures, and not on the price evolution of a single contract. Thus it is the 'forward curve' that is relevant for obtaining a useable model for derivative cash flow. The HJM model is presented as one of these, with changes in the forward curve over a particular time interval represented as a linear combination of random perturbations. For energy markets, each perturbation is specified by a deterministic shape function multiplied by a Gaussian factor. The unobservability of the factors determining the forward curve evolution makes the use of historical data mandatory if the parameters are to be estimated. But lack of sufficient historical data and its nonstationarity complicate this estimation. The authors discuss the Schwartz-Smith multi-factor model as an example of a forward curve dynamics model and give some solutions. They then move on to a model that specifies the dynamics for only the contracts that are actually traded, which in the literature are called 'market models.' The model they actually discuss is a multivariate geometric Brownian motion representation of the forward curve dynamics, where the volatility and drift functions are linear functions of the forward prices. The authors then derive the 'discrete string models', where it is assumed that the number of factors is equal to the number of contracts, and the random factors are governed by ordinary Brownian motion. String models are represented as having the advantage of being able to directly observe the factors in the historical data. The authors apply string models to multi-commodity cases, and discuss an example for monthly forward prices. They show how to match the current forward curve, the option prices, and the correlation structure for this model.

The discussion in chapter 7 revolves around finding better models for the dynamics of power prices that capture the special properties of energy prices, such as mean reversion and seasonality, and the need for stable models. They therefore introduce 'hybrid models', which they claim give a more natural representation of the dynamics of power prices, make use of nonprice forward-looking information, and can take the historical data on power prices and then extend it to information on fuel prices, outages, etc. The construction of these models is based on the use of nonlinear transformations on a collection of random variables. The random variables are essentially the system demand, natural gas and oil price, outages, emission prices, and weather at a particular time. The power price then can be written as a function of the dynamics of these factors, the latter written by the authors in terms of the corresponding tradables. Recognizing that hedging cannot be done on some of these factors, they adjust the power price formula so that the power tradables, i.e. the forwards and option prices, are exactly matched. This matching transformation is chosen so that if the forward contracts and options are priced using the adjusted formula, one recovers the exact current prices. The model, as the authors summarize it, is an attempt to explain the behavior of the tradables in terms of the evolution of the underlying factors and static adjustments to the terminal probability distribution. Historical information on the tradables and spot products is not used to calibrate the model, but it is used to validate the model. The authors distinguish between 'reduced-form' hybrid models, where the transformation is calibrated from the historical prices, and 'fundamental' hybrid models, where the transformation is calibrated from the market structure and is only tested on the historical prices. The authors discuss an example of a reduced-form hybrid model that is heavily parametrized, but has the advantage of using price data more efficiently. The rest of the chapter concentrates on fundamental hybrid models, with the author first discussing how power prices are formed in competitive markets. They consider a typical pool market, with the price determined via auction mechanisms. The authors then try to identify and characterize the underlying random variables that actually affect power prices. The time series for the price of power is written in terms of the demand using a 'bid stack' function. The bid stack function is approximated by a 'generation stack' that is found for a given time by sorting generation units by their generation costs. This approximation is checked by comparing the marginal generation costs generated by the generation stack with the distribution of power prices determined by the time series via the bid stack. There should be agreement in both approaches between the higher order moments. This comparison forms the basis of the authors' hybrid approach to modeling power prices. A transformation is found which relates the marginal generation costs to the distribution of power prices with the requirement that the prices of market instruments used for calibration are matched, and the higher moments are (approximately) preserved. The transformation is not unique, and in fact a family of transformations induced by the multiplication and stack scaling operators can be found.

Until now there were a handful of papers, precious few books, and mostly inside proprietary models and experience that dealt with the complex subject of power trading and all its flavors. This book provides a nice summary of many of the present issues. The treatment of the subject is somewhat mathematically rigorous, so the book might not be for traders as much as it is for quants or risk managers.

To me, the greatest strength of the book lies in its fairly detailed analysis of what DOESN'T work, i.e. why common models and methods from the financial and other commodity realms can not be successfully grafted onto the energy market without risking significant valuation and cash flow prediction errors. The hybrid model they formulate towards the end of the book is very similar to Skantze and Ilic (2001). The departure from most previous models is that they attempt to use the markets to formulate and calibrate the structure instead of relying too much on past historical price/load data, which without some empirical understanding of the underlying processes, is fraught with danger due to rapidly evolving nature of the power market (or at least once rapidly evolving--it seems to be a little static at the moment).

Some familiarity with the market and stochastic/statistical mathematics is assumed. References to specific topics and more in depth analysis of particular subjects are good. The authors have a grip on real-world trading, risk, and cashflow issues, which makes this a useful reference for just about anyone associated with those aspects of the power market. I recommend it.

Extremely well written and right to the point, with the appropriate level of technical detail, Eydeland and Wolyniec's Energy and Power Risk Management is arguably the best book on the subject. A must have for every professional in the industry.

The Title frightened me a little bit. It was refreshing to get into the book are realize that Mr. Moore was not looking at financial management from a Doomsday worldview. I appreciate the resonable approach to Y2K fears