Probability-distribution

A good, cheap overview of logistic regression analysis.

I bought and I'm glad I did, but I don't refer to it like I do Hosmer and Lemeshow's text.

Prof Scott Menard must be commended for writing an excellent book on Logistic Regression. Explaining it in the context of commercially available software packages is a very good idea. I was able replicate some his analysis using SAS on the data set used in this book (available on line from ICPSR, Univ of Michigan).

I eagerly await the next edition of this monograph. Thank you!

As its title suggests, this book is an excellent guide to using logistic regression in data analysis. I purchased this book because I needed to do several logistic regression runs for my dissertation. It turned out to be an extremely useful book for two reasons. First, it presents logistic regression alongside more traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) models. Therefore, if you already have a good understanding of OLS models, this book is very easy to follow. Second, its discussion of logistic regression issues in the context of SPSS or SAS makes it very easy to follow along with your own data analysis as you move through the book. Since statistical packages are always improving, this does date the book a little. However, this is a very minor concern. I believe Dr. Menard is to be commended for including issues regarding popular software packages in this work.

When compared to SAS's documentation, this book's greatest advantage is explaining in english (rather than mathematical notation) the assumptions and limitations of SAS's (and SPSS'S) algorithms. Its chapter on logistic regression diagnostics is alone worth the price of the book. In short, if you need to use logistic regression analysis and you already understand OLS, you cannot go wrong with this book.

I was hoping for plenty of statistics and hard math with lots anecdotal support and highly specific cause-effect analysis. Instead, this book is a hodgepodge of broad, unsubstantiated generalities, apparently culled somewhat whimsically and in snippets from a reading list. Especially the chapter called "Financial Rollercoaster" is packed with the sort of nickel-dime pseudo-knowledge that does more harm than good. Consider this typical piece of advice: "...unless you think that inflation is cracked for good, expect bonds to deliver solid rather than spectacular performance in the 2000's". There are plenty more oversimplified bits of parroted conjecture which are just as useful. Still, if you haven't woken up to the implications of demographics, this gives you an easy intro to the issues worth pursuing via other sources. There is some value in the "References" section - perhaps even $12.57 worth. To be skimmed, not studied.

Paul Wallace offers an engaging and insightful examination of the prospects of an aging society. The title that wallace has chosen hints at the magnitude of the anticipated changes of a 'greying society'. Wallace makes extensive use of UN and OECD studies to wake up anyone who doubts that an aging society is not an issue that ought to concern them, their finances and business. For the more serious minded, there are plenty of specialist texts to consult. For a broad overview of the likely impact of an ageing society, wallace's contribution is timely and accessible since he spares us of a lot of technical jargon that may intrude (economists usually have plenty to say on this topic!).

Wallace constructs his analysis by building on the theme of his choosen title. Part one, explores the 'faultlines' that major studies identify, and awaits explanation in the next section, the 'tremors'. If you understand the logic of the opening chapters, then the 'shockwaves' should not be a big surprise. I suspect we'll have to live through it before anyone truly understands it. This is partly a get-out clause for political leaders who ought to urgently set out plans for, for example pensions reform, but since people and politicans don't tend to think and act for the long term, you can imagine wallace urging disapproval.

Each facet of life merits a mention; from ageism in the workplace, to the effect on property prices, spiralling healthcare costs and the impending 'pensions crunch'. While many of the current baby boomer generation are looking forward to early retirement, wallace leaves us to wonder if we, the younger generation, will have to work so much harder to share their (modest) ambition of enjoying their leisure after 40 years of labour?

A good read.

When I moved into France from my native Colombia, I was astounded at the number of old ladies with dogs and the paucity of mothers with babies and teenagers. Agequake confirms that this perception is just another aspect of the huge changes that new demographics will bring on within the next 20 years. The good news is that people are living longer. The bad news is that they are retiring at a younger age. And that, the longer they live, the more medical care they will require.

Wallace shows that the dependency ratios (the ratio of non-working "dependents" to working folk) will lead to a point where each worker will need to support not only himself, but a pensioner as well, and his own children, if any (and there will be very few). As the number of young working people, usually the more creative of all age-groups, continue to shrink, innovation will also came to a halt, and ultimately economic growth will vanish and then reverse the secular growing trend. While some environmentalists may feel overjoyed by this implosion of capitalism, most of us who rather liked material comforts and hoped that they would continue to grow endlessly will be less satisfied. The impact of the "agequake" will be felt in every sphere. Corporate hierarchies will make less sense when there are more middle-aged managers than young newcomers. The relationship between youthful and aggressive Third World Countries and rich older OECD countries (where elderly women will be the most influential constituency) will be fraught with dangers. Share prices will tend to collapse as the "Baby Boomers" start to retire and prefer to liquidate some of their assets. The housing market will be altered beyond recognition.

What can be done to avoid this future? Unsurprisingly, not much. Government policies cannot permanently improve fertility in rich countries, immigration in the scale required to make up for the shortfall of young workers will be politically indefensible, and the growing importance of older voters makes it virtually impossible for politicians to effect changes in fields such as retirement ages, pensioners' rights
or public health.

All in all, a sobering read. When these things happen, those of us who read it will have at least a headstart on everyone else. Not bad for a few bucks, eh?