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Don't Waste Your Time or Money
200 Minute Marketing System
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Very well written - superb examples
very helpful book
A must read
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It's great!!
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Horrible - not worth the paper it's printed on
20/20 Insight
One of the MUST READ Books of the year!!
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Read before you dive in
20/20 Gold dust
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Nothing impressive
Analytically rigorous uncertainty there are four basic levels of 'residual uncertainty', which the author defines as 'the uncertainty left after the best available analysis to separate the unknown from the unknowable', each of which requires a different strategic response
strategy under uncertainty requires arriving at the best possible answers to five basic questions:
- shape or adapt (eg seek to shape a market or adapt to an existing market)
- Now or later
- focus or diversify - for example a strategic portfolio
- should we use new tools and Frameworks - the author explores scenarios, game theory and systems dynamics among others
- new strategic planning and decision making processes - should we challenge a traditional planning cycle or set of decision processes?
Management should operate with a four step process:
- Define the strategic issue and the level of residual uncertainty
- Frame possible solutions
- Analyze possible solutions and make strategy choices
- Monitor and update strategy choices over time
The appropriate approach is issue related, not organization related. Organizations in stable environments may encounter major strategic issues involving high residual uncertainty, while those in very dynamic environments may have issues involving low uncertainty. The strategic process must be appropriate to the situation.
The book is concerned with how to answer the five basic questions above in the context of each level of uncertainty, and which tools are most appropriate for guiding the decision process. The tools discussed in the Appendix "The Uncertainty Toolkit" are:
scenario planning
game theory
decision analysis
systems dynamics models
management flight simulators.
In essence, what the author has done is to frame a set of known tools and principles within McKinsey's preferred structure of analytical rigour. If you still believe that 'classical' strategic planning round the business case is the only way to approach strategy, the book may help widen your options. If you are already familiar with the various tools offered, the main benefit of the book will be to provide a useful reminder that levels of uncertainty differ, and a framework for thinking about your own situation and response to it. Perhaps the most important message in the book is not to assume uncertainty until you have carried out the analysis needed to separate the knowable from the truly uncertain.
Finally a McKinsey Book that walks the talkMost books out there (Porter's Competetive Advantage, Co-opetition, Competing for the future, Decision Analysis books, and many more) talk about one tool/methodology or one way of resolving the strategic problem. This book takes a different path in that all good tools are used together and it is hoped that by viewing the well defined structured problem using these tools would help you come to conclusions in differing levels of uncertainity (obviously the problem context has levels of uncertainity or risk).
Four levels of certainity are defined and tools that would help under those circumstances are clearly listed. For most of the tools - how to use those tools is upto you to figure out. However, having said that the Appendix section does lists further reading, that would help you get started in learning about _some_ of the tools used in the book. I found the tools lists to be very useful. After reading the book I knew _exactly_ what tools to use under my circumstances.
If you have spent time reading strategy (Mintzberg, Ghemawat, Hamel, Kaplan et al, Porter, Prahalad, Day, systems engineering approaches...), you'll find good use on how to put togther all those analysis methodologies into one framework and come to conslusions.
I wish the book actually walked through some cases and used the tools listed to arrive at conclusions. Cases in differing levels of uncertainity would have been very helpful (hence 4 stars).
Finally, this is my first McKinsey book (McKinsey brand leveraged book) among others that walk the talk (others being Valuation and the McKinsey Way/McKinsey Mind).
Recommended.

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Avoid this book
tells it like it is

Mistakes are common; I particularly liked this one: The Cadillac Cimmaron "only imitated what the segment really wanted - low gas mileage and reliability."
More troublesome, though, was the author's confused nomenclature. On page 6, the author constructs a table that includes the columns "Volume (Units)" and "Percent of of (sic) Volume." The data in the latter column, however, are actually percent of sales dollars, not percent of units sold.
I futilely attempted to sort out the meaning of several paragraphs on page 33, including this one: ".... a final step, rank your top customer types using these same decision criteria to determine your final three customer segments." The first problem was that "these same decision criteria" referred to, seemingly, nothing. The second problem was the author had previously used "customer type" and "customer segment" interchangeably, including on that very same page.
The book actually covers the topics you would expect, but there are too many errors and too much baloney.